I've long time thought that the concept of odds quoted reflecting the actual chances of a horse winning a race are misleading.
It may just be semantics but I feel that most punters(if not all, unconciously)look at a race in light of all of the previous races they have looked at and determine that 2/1 is in fact a fair chance of a 200% return on their investment given the class of the opposition rather than a realistic 1 in 3 chance of winning that particular race.
If odds are a reliable predictor then why is it that only one in three favourites salute?
As far as getting unders on horse from strong stables..it can be likened to the stock market where a premium is paid for shares in a bluechip...the reduced dividend is accounted for in the greater surety of a return.
I look at odds more as market sentiment rather than a true measure of the horse's chance of winning a particular race.
Look at firmers and drifters and see if the return offered is worth the risk.
Interested to know if anyone has heard of any Technical Analysis (a la stockmarket) done on firmers/drifters?

Working on a system that I would greatly appreciate being tested by one of you blokes.
I looked at 4 and 5 year olds in Waterhouse, Hawkes(pre-Ingham split), Freedman and Hayes stables (as well as Mc Donald,Stokes-SA and Heathcote...might get rubbed out on EI move in Qld) and backing them every start from a spell until they win..then drop them until next prep.
Surprising how good the return is on these proven horses.

Based system on:
Eliminating 2 and 3 yo's as they are still being tested for ideal distance and 'placement' for a win by trainer more difficult given experimental nature of younger horses and vulnerability to growth injuries and undisclosed form of opponents;
top trainers won't persist/use up stable accommodation for 4 and 5 year olds that they think are not a good chance of winning a race;
owners won't shell out $30000 a year on training for a 4 or 5 year old that hasn't a very strong chance of winning a race;
top trainers use top jockeys, vets, feed, facilities;
top trainers use own facilities to get horses race fit and most 4 and 5 year olds win within 5 starts of a new prep with a lot getting up in first 3 starts of a new prep;
top trainers want to stay top trainers and;
experience with the horse allows top trainers to set a 4 or 5 year old for a particular race against horse with disclosed form.
Apprecite someone giving this a trial.
Level stakes or bet to clear a hundred on eventual win.

My experience is that trainers want to give owners value for their money and that they avoid situations where the horse in question is odds on (ruioning a chance for the owners to punt) and anything outside 8/1 indicates taht maybe the race in question is not the race it was set for.