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Old 3rd October 2007, 08:47 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Here's another go at SANDOWN in Race 8 today.
Firstly the odds calculated based on current form and ability.

3 $3.8 CLASSY HAND
6 $3.9 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $6.0 SUPERIOR INC
1 $6.3 SCORPIO
5 $12.7 WHY NOT JACK
2 $22.9 LARJULEMI
4 $63.2 HOLIDAY ROAD
8 $66.9 ********** ROXON

And here's on speed out of the Boxes.

4 $5.5 HOLIDAY ROAD
5 $6.3 WHY NOT JACK
7 $7.7 SUPERIOR INC
6 $8.1 GREAT ATTRACTOR
1 $8.1 SCORPIO
3 $8.9 CLASSY HAND
8 $11.9 ********** ROXON
2 $11.9 LARJULEMI

Looking at the prices shows there are only 4 chances on Form.
But on speed out of the Boxes, they all have a chance.And when the 2 percentages are combined, the roughies are given too much chance of winning.
It seems the problem is too much weight is being placed on the speed out of the Boxes.
Even though 50% of the races are won by the leader, the ****** has to be good as well.

So here's a combined Market that has speed at 25% of the weighting rather than 50%.

3 $4.4 CLASSY HAND
6 $4.5 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $6.3 SUPERIOR INC
1 $6.7 SCORPIO
5 $10.1 WHY NOT JACK
4 $17.4 HOLIDAY ROAD
2 $18.6 LARJULEMI
8 $31.0 ********** ROXON

And finally the Market with Box Draw advantages included.

3 $4.5 CLASSY HAND
1 $4.6 SCORPIO
6 $5.4 GREAT ATTRACTOR
7 $7.1 SUPERIOR INC
5 $12.4 WHY NOT JACK
2 $15.4 LARJULEMI
4 $19.9 HOLIDAY ROAD
8 $26.6 ********** ROXON

Now our better performed dogs are at the top of the List as where they should be.

I'm going to take these Trifectas.
3,1,6/3,1,6,7/3,1,6,7 for $10
3,1,6,7 boxed for $5
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