Your roulette analogy only applies given that there is a finite identifiable range of variations.
Red and Black would have to be a two horse race...the same two horses...race after race.
Even the roulette example doesn't stand up given that the House runs a '0'.
Ask yourself why Jamie Packer is selling newspaper businesses and buying casinos.Remember too that when you look at 'value' you have to take into account the %tax the TAb takes as well as the margin a bookie has to allow for their tax.
You never get the REAL ODDS and you cannot work them out given the vast array of tangible and intangible variables.
Insurance companies employ highly paid full time actuaries and pay millions for software and computers and still cannot predict any event with even close certainty...hence their rising premiums after any significant event.
The best we can do is use our experience to judge fair risk/return.Anything else is either us having ourselves on or being manipulated by those wanting to profit from our fears and ignorance.