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Originally Posted by waggamick
Your idea on faves would stand up if the price in every race was 2/1 the favourite.
What about races where the favourite is Evens..that would imply that the fave wins one in every two races...or 4/6 would mean the fave wins 3 of every five races?
If you go down the 'one in three faves wins a race' road then you are taking unders every time you back a horse at less than 2/1...the logical extension is that the higher the price of the favourite the better the value you are getting...this flies in the face of our herd instinct that says the more people that predict a certain outcome then the more likely it is to occur.
Winning fave Stats tell us that 2 out of 3 times the herd is wrong.
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Nope, don't see it.
The proportion of winning is in direct relation to the price. A 5/1 favourite will win less than one in three, a 4/6 favourite will win more than one in three. You'll lose less, the shorter the price because of price bias, so what?
It is an illogical extension to assume that the higher the price, the more value.
Now, if you were to take advantage of price anomolies elsewhere, that's a whole different ballgame, but to assume a higher price means more value is an invalid assumption.
Many factors are reasons for higher prices, field size being just one.
Let's say we have a favourite at evens in a ten horse field, and in another race the favourite is 4/1 in a ten horse field.
Does this make the second favourite overs????
No, because they win less.
The horse is clearly overs if it is 4/1 with the tote but 7/1 elsewhere.
Considering price only that is.
The biggest mistake made is to assume that bigger prices are more value, and smaller prices are less value. The shorter the price, the less you lose.
The only way to take advantage is to find either a form edge, or a price edge.
In other words, find somewhere where they have
mispriced the horse, rather than just accepting that a big price is value.
if you can get the best odds of every horse that starts between 1/1 - 7/2, then you need never do the form
What this means, is getting the best price available, not just backing all the 7/2 shots!