Villian has a few problems here. The big one is going to be lack of pace and the 2nd one is the distance of 2500m. We have to remember we are talking 3yr. olds here. Villian's last win was run in very slow time [15 lengths off the track record on a firm track] so I'm not really impressed. Breedng is very dodgy for the distance and only on one side of the family.

Marching has the problem of maybe peeking last run and might struggle with the distance. Trainers don't get peek fitness for long from a 3 yr. old and the horse has done plenty this prep. Kibbutz got a poor barrier for a horse that hangs in [it's likely to get in trouble]. Needed b1,2,3. but is a main chance if lucky.

The Geelong form for Stokdale wasn't impressive for a Derby winner but my wife likes this one and is her pick and her form analysis is deadly, but different to mine [I don't understand it but she keeps finding winners at odds]. My pick is Lottorio, a massive horse of over 17 hands who will love this trip and course. Lightly raced and this is it's acid test. If it fails here with everything going for it, it's a gunna do. Great run last start.

If you like Stokdale stick with it. The wife has picked the last 3 Derby winners and the last 5 MC winners [mine was Rain Lover, a very long way back, but I also got the tri in 3]!