
15th November 2007, 07:29 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Hi King,
You sound cheesed off & suprised that there is a difference to the actual race day market. Why?
Just as there is a huge difference between the actual TAB market & Betfair .
Just look at the TAB Fav at 2 min till jump & compare to say Betfair , it is very common to see a 300% in price e.g. $2.90 TAB , $8.90 Betfair.
The pre-post was never designed to be a fixed price service.
But it can be if you enter the paper price that you want onto Betfair & see if it gets taken up with enough time till jump.
Yesterday for instance most of the TAB $2.80-3.80 horses could easily get
1-6 points more 2 min till jump.
I saw one that was $1.60 on the TAB & where $4.00 could be had on Betfair.
Most punters know that the pre-post market is just a numerical indication of chance , set to price between runners used a as point of reference between runners, when doing the form.
e.g. Two horses for possible consideration maybe $2.00 & the other $100
Which one of the 2 horses does one think has the strongest chance of getting up?
One can use it like a ratings service & bet the overs & delete the unders.
The pre-post market is usually set around the 160% mark , this is usually done to try & offset any possible scratchings.
As opposed to the TAB at 118.5% which includes rounding down, & approx 105% on betfair before 5% commission which can be deducted off the price.
The idea of using the pre-post market is looking at its position within that market & the top 5 within that market stats show a high percentage SR.
One could use the price in the pre-post market & bet all the horses in the top 5 or 6 that are paying more or less as indicated in the live market.
One will see that it is not uncommon to see a horse rated 5th in what ever pre-post market showing say $8.00 that ends up winning at $28.00
One thing that is interesting is that the live market Top 5 is around 79-80% as compared to the pre-post market of 78%.
Not bad for bloke who did the market sitting around in the kitchen in his underware , scratching himself...
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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