16th November 2007, 08:44 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, Crash.
When I tested the system with 20 races, place betting slightly outperformed win, and as I like place betting I was more interested in this.
However, when Merriguy looked at N.Z, his figures favoured win betting, and as you point out live betting has now also done the same. Anyway, if either proves profitable I'll be happy even though I have a (maybe unreasonable?) bias with Place solely because it has a higher strike rate.
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I can understand the place preference among many punters in any type of betting. As far as systems go though, they all seem to pay better for the win. Basically because most place payouts are not 1/3 win price, but more times than not, substantially less. $6w $2p is not 1/3 the place either. That's $5 profit for the win and $1 profit the place or 1/5th the win profit. I'm sure your aware of this but many punters are not.
Even when betting place based on price, it's very hard to ensure 1/3rd or better price, especially betting TAB as the prices change after the jump. In the end it all comes down to value and win price has more of it than place.
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