
4th December 2007, 03:03 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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LAYING
I have found targeting 3 horses a race works better than just targetting 2 horses a race .
Then decide which is the worst, using ones favorite Neural setting, for example.
Think twice if one is going to take the market fav on.
They have an unnerving habit of getting up inspite of what form may suggest
Targeting the price range up to $8.90 works well.
I feel one needs to have at least a 90% success rate to make it profitable if one is targetting the greater price range .
Try & target races with 11+ runners.
That way we have 10+ runners working for us to knock our selection over from winning.
I found the best distance range to target is the 1100-1400m range.
They tend to run truer as form may suggest.
With lay betting one has to be mindfull of the liability of the race should our selection win instead of lose, therefore its a very strong idea to bet to the liability of bank percentage ,one feels comfotable exposed to.
Example.
Betting to 5% liability of bank. This allows for 20 outs in a row.
$1000 bank = $50
Now divide the fractional odds of our selection into the above amount to calculated the outlay.
e.g. $3.00 = 2/1 Fractional odds
$50 / 2/1 = $25 O/L
$50 / 7/1 = $7
$50 / 5/1 = $10
$50 / 9/1 = $5.55
$50 / 1/1 = $50
Treat odds on horses as if they are even money (1/1)
This way, ones exposure to risk is always under control & one will have a greater chance of gleaming a profit.
I feel one should use one of the Betfair betting tools to work more easily with Betfair .
Also the programs get around the $6 min bet policy, whereby one can place bets as low as 1 cent if they wish.
These tools range in price & complexity.
Here are just some of them.
Bet Angel (the original) -$600
Bet IE V2.5 - $225
Fairbot -$132
Bet Trader Pro - Free.
Please keep in mind that they all draw on broadband usage so make sure one has an unlimited broadband account otherwise it could be a costly exercise with broadband bills being in excess usage for the monthly allocation..
For those interested in Marias staking plan.
$1.00 - $3.50 Bet 1% of bank.
$3.55- $7.40 Bet 0.6%
$7.60 - $11.00 Bet 0.4%
As one can see from above , she is also betting roughly to liability of bank as to odds.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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