Originally Posted by michaelg

Hi, Chrome Prince.

Are you saying that you back every (almost) Betfair Fave for a 34% POT? If so, this seems extremely generous because I think it may have been Wesmip1 who stated on this forum that backing every Betfair fave over a certain extensive period produced a 4 or 5% POT. I'm not aware if this took into account Betfair's takeout.

Assuming that backing the TAB fave has an overall loss of 15%, that would mean that to break-even on the TAB a $3.00 TAB winner should hypothetically be approx $3.45 (15% X $3.00). Then to obtain a further 34% on Betfair, the price would be approximately $4.62 which does not include Betfair's takeout. I have seen many instances where this is reality but it's difficult to believe it can be sustained over a long period.

Do you back the fave at the death? I think more often than not that the fave, especially the pronounced ones, firm at the end of betting.

As a matter of interest, I have just looked at Sapphire Coast R2 where the fave coinicidentally won. NSW TAB divvy was $3.50 and the last trade on Betfair was $4.10 ($3.90 taking into account the 5% reduction). Looking at the graph, the $4.10 price was about the shortest available which as mentioned, was at the death. So, the chances are that a much better price could easily have been achieved.

Interestingly, BAT shows the winner at $3.95 which I have been informed that this does not include Betfair's takeout. If Wesmip1 got his figures from BAT that might explain why his POT is lower than yours.