Thread: Betfair SP
View Single Post
  #19  
Old 16th December 2007, 07:24 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
Default

Dr Ron,

This might help you, I don't know, but I'll share some research I did with you.

In a fight to the line or a photo, a favourite will nose out a longer priced horse 9 times out of ten.
If a favourite runs a place or is trading at less than $2.00 in running, they win about 80% of races and return a very big profit.

In other words, if a favourite is trading large in running, they rarely win.

So, if you can back a favourite at half it's prerace price in running, it's a damn good bet.
If you can lay a favourite at double it's price in running, it's also a good bet.

The problem arises, that you only want to bet "IF" the price is low in running and they will match if the price is better

So the way I use this information in my research is to lay any horse at big odds at short prices, because more often than not, they'll run out of puff or get overrun. The payout on the ones that win is minimal anyway.

So a good lay is a 20/1 shot trading at $1.50.

$1.01 or $1.05 is a little too short as they are almost to the line in that case.

If I could only match odds on horses if they trade at less than 50% of that price I would be doing extremely well.

As a little bit of proof, if you backed only favourites running in the first three 200m out from the line (thus trading significantly shorter), you'd return 41.93% profit using only TAB prices

20,000 plus races analysed.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
Reply With Quote