17th December 2007, 03:09 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
|
|
The market is accurate in that the winning chances correspond to the strike rate almost to 100% +/- 1%
I have just posted another thread which demonstrates how accurate the in-running market is also +/-1% (something which I though was wildly innaccurate).
Within a 100% market, horses will drift or firm, but still adding up to 100%
The market is accurate, but the price of a particular horse may not be.
This is only for one reason or another.
Maria used Sire lines and she had an angle to do with the trainers, but it wasn't black and white, which is why it can't be reverse engineered.
Maybe in Australia, we don't give as much weight to sire form except in first starters.
Some of our best horses come from little known sires.
Her staking plan was merely a payout or liability lay calculation.
|