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Old 18th December 2007, 05:08 AM
jfc jfc is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TWOBETS
As a place better I found it very easy to calculate my probable outcomes for any system I devised, but for the past 3 weeks I've been having a go at the laying. I love all the extra action as I can now average 6 bets per day as opposed to 2, but............................................... .................!

After 65 successful lay bets in a row I now realise I can't work out whether I'm a flipping genious or the equivalent of a bet to win bloke who's had one bet and it happened to win.

Let me explain.......
My average odds accepted for my lay bets were around $16.50 so I've only won around 4 times my possible loss after all that action. In other words if I'd been backing to win and scored just one $4 winner then I'd be in exactly the same position.

So my question refers to the chances of this continuing. Is it the same as one lucky win bet or not.


Implied Strike Rate = 15.5/16.5 ~= 94%

0.94^65 = 1.8% = Chance of unbroken run of 65

So this is far more harder than scoring a $4 winner in a solitary try.
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