
18th December 2007, 05:08 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TWOBETS
As a place better I found it very easy to calculate my probable outcomes for any system I devised, but for the past 3 weeks I've been having a go at the laying. I love all the extra action as I can now average 6 bets per day as opposed to 2, but............................................... .................!
After 65 successful lay bets in a row I now realise I can't work out whether I'm a flipping genious or the equivalent of a bet to win bloke who's had one bet and it happened to win.
Let me explain.......
My average odds accepted for my lay bets were around $16.50 so I've only won around 4 times my possible loss after all that action. In other words if I'd been backing to win and scored just one $4 winner then I'd be in exactly the same position.
So my question refers to the chances of this continuing. Is it the same as one lucky win bet or not.
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Implied Strike Rate = 15.5/16.5 ~= 94%
0.94^65 = 1.8% = Chance of unbroken run of 65
So this is far more harder than scoring a $4 winner in a solitary try.
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