27th December 2007, 10:43 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,438
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pengo
Sorry I'm new to all of this, i thought handicaping was just to do with making a horse carry a heavier weight, to give the other horses a chance.
Do you look and 2nd, 3rd & 4th finishers in their last race and what lengths they were beaten by in selecting a horse? Then if its showing value with the odds its paying you'd back it? So basically you know you won't win every bet but because its "good value", when it does pay it makes up all loses and then some?
Well I've been slowly working my way towards that sort of selection system, am I on th right track? What lengths beaten by is acceptable, 1? I'm guessing 1 length is the length of a whole horse? If its beaten by one whole length surely that bad?
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Pengo, there are a lot of variables when it comes to handicapping, you have to take the whole race as an entity and measure each horse against the opposition, rather than just rating each horse solely on past achievements.
Of course, you have to measure each horse, but it is in context of today's race.
For example, 1 length beaten is quite good depending the class of the race, the distance, the barrier the opposition, the settling position of the horse and whether the horse was running home or fading at the end.
It is a complicated matrix of variables. |