30th December 2007, 12:09 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheSystemKing
Can someone please answer the following:
How many bets are needed before you can confidently say your system makes a profit? 10, 100, 1000? Or more? Now on top of that what odds do you use? Your home state tote? Best tote? Bookies starting price? Bookies top fluctuation?
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It is not the number of bets that reflect the stability or viability of a system, well it is, but in conjunction with other indicators.
You need to consider:
Strike rate
Average Dividend
Maximum Dividend
Profit divided by the Maximum dividend
Most important is the ratio of winners making up the profit.
The odds you use are the odds you plan to use.
It's no good with 1000 selections and one of your winners was 500/1
However you might have 1,000 selections and the maximum winner was $5.00
It's a whole different outcome.
I don't use number of bets per se, I split it into years and look at the profit for each year, if a system makes a profit every year, it's a good'un  |