Of course you are right, Crash, and if you go back through the selections Wes has kindly provided you will see that most are odds on or close to it.

It reminds me of some posts in the Ausrace forum from some years ago (a number of people on this forum would remember what I am referring to). There was a guy there who maintained that he could come out way ahead with a progression system (for the place in his case). He was howled down over and over again; but he held on to his belief, and probably is still doing it despite the fact "that it can't be done". In his figures you only had to have a 67% strike rate for the place to be a winner.

Must try it again!!!