
6th January 2008, 09:14 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Hi Pengo,
It is a very human initial reaction, when the idea of betting to lose comes up in conversation, but the reality is somewhat different.
Ask any of your friends if they are prepared to lay bet $10 on a 200/1 pop to lose, they will all say yes to the basic idea. Then tell them to keep in mind that if the thing happens to win, they are up for a liability payout of $2000, but if it falls over they get to profit the $10
Now watch their faces turn ashen white at the mere thought of it...funny ah!
Heres an exercise one may like to look at.
Pick a horse in every race that is $30 or slightly less.
One will find that one of these Donkeys will get up at least once in the next 30 bets.
If none get up within that 30 bets, one will probable see 2 of them get up in the next 30 bets.
It can be a very sobering exercise.
Go over vthe UniTAB results to see what I mean. These results can go back 2 years on this site.
If one wishes to do the lay thing with less liability, maybe have a look at place lay betting in races with 13+ runners.
You may discover that you have a gift for this.
I would strongly recommend to bet to price with a set liability.
e.g. Set Liability for each race could be say $20 = 1/20th of bank $400
Divide the horses fractional odds e.g. 10/1 into the $20 = $2 O/L
If the horse gets up to win , we lose $20
If horse falls over, we win $2
That's the harsh reality of lay betting.
Try & keep the same liability for each race on the day , because increasing the exposure, say half way through the day is financial suicide.
Set it up at the beginning of the day & dont change it until the next day up or down.
Maria's money management plan.
$1.00-3.50 = 1% bet of bank
$3.55-7.40 = 0.6%
$7.60-11.00 = 0.4%
Increase bank accordingly at the end of the day.
Decrease bet if bank drops by 35% at the end of the day.
Use the free Bet Trader Pro program to place bets under the Betfair min. of $6 a bet.
It also has a Dutch betting program in it for win & lay betting, you could use that.
What I do when using this program is enter 1/12th of bank into the square at the top . This equates to risking approx 1% of bank for each bet.
I feel one will have a greater chance of success & understanding of percentages, if one places their bets in this manner & less exposure to doing all their money very quickly, if a bad day should strike.
Good luck my friend.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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