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Originally Posted by crash
Pengo,
Because a race has 12 horses it does not mean they all have an equal chance of winning or losing. That's just plain nonsense and setting your price to that theory would be suicide.
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Yes, just like backing a horse to win you check its form same for the "loser". Tho the thing is the loser has more chance of losing since it only needs to be beaten by one other horse. Whereas the winner needs to beat by all the other horses. My logic is sound and will not be challenged !!!
(/sarcasm).
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Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Ask any of your friends if they are prepared to lay bet $10 on a 200/1 pop to lose, they will all say yes to the basic idea. Then tell them to keep in mind that if the thing happens to win, they are up for a liability payout of $2000, but if it falls over they get to profit the $10
Now watch their faces turn ashen white at the mere thought of it...funny ah!
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As you just point out, you limit your liability so if that long shot comes in you don't lose your bank. Plus I wouldn't be staking 10 on the 200-1 long shot due to the eventuality that you have described. Instead I'd lay a horse that will allow me to limit my liablity to a predetermined amount. So that it doesn't destroy the bank if it gets up.
All I'm seeing here is naysayers, I guess we will see. Tho I appreciate the words of wisdom, if anything this just makes me want to succeed just that much more to show you it is possible.
How is giving over the odds not able to simulate a matched bet? It simulates it as a best as can be short of actually doing it. I'll look at the current back odds and give over that, so its more likely that it'll get matched. Also you can bring up what odds the horse has traded at and so I see what it has mostly gone for and give over that. So long as I make more than I lose its all good.
I still rekon lay betting is where its at, a horse only needs to place 2nd or worse and there are a lot more places for it to finish that will end up in a successful outcome for me, rather trying to finish in one particular place for a win bet. Basically, its harder to win a race than it is to lose it is my logic.
Also I'll be limiting my liability to no more than 100 units, so I will be set to a limited range of odds so I can stake 6. Once the bank builds, I'd use dutching to amplify my profits with limited liability. I won't be laying longshots (100-1), I'll be looking at the teens at most so that I am able to stake 6 units at whatever odds for the horse I have selected. The sweet spot from other threads says its 5-11.
I'm not expecting a 100% success rate but there is obviously a reason why the tote doesn't give a horse good odds. Sure they can get it wrong but the hope is that I'd make enough to cover the odd donkey getting up. Further you wouldn't lay purely on what the tote odds are, that only helps you to make a shortlist of selctions. Which just like any bet, you'd check its form and stats to come to a final decision.
I just think there is obviously money to be made and it seems this type of betting is more suited to my style. Also if there is no money to be made why are there bookies in the first place?
No skin off my nose if I get this wrong, I haven't risked anything other than my time.