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Originally Posted by Grand Armee
Mark are you basically saying that a good lay process is -
A: pick and choose specific horses, who you think are either no chance (and are in the market) or are gross unders, and lay them specifically
or
B: try to lay an entire market, at about 110%, by putting up prices early then adjusting, adjusting, adjusting, monitoring totes/bookie flucs, etc, to try to "balance a book", like the old style "figures bookies"
Would you say you are one, or both, or neither of these? Also, what are your comments on the viability of those two methods for potential lay punters? Interested in Chrome Prince's thoughts on this, too, and anyone who would like to offer an opinion.
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Hi Grand Armee,
I'll let Mark speak for himself as he is the master at making books.
For myself, I dabble in a mixture and it really depends on the type of race (number of runners, price of favourite).
In a general open race, I try to lay below market price (there are many ways to achieve this), I do extremely well in very small fields with an odds on runner making books.
The best race for me is 4 or 5 runners with a heavy odds on runner.
I can consistently make at least 110% market, because it's pretty obvious what will drift and what will firm, especially if you get in hours before the race on UK markets.
On the occasions I get it wrong and the favourite drifts and second or third fave comes in a point or two, I can usually trade out of trouble.
It is very hard to get horses outside the top 4 in the market at bookies odds.
I never look at horses with less chance because you usually have to lay them too high, because the public also think they are no chance.
I concentrate on which horse I'm most likely to get matched at under tote odds, and it usually isn't the favourite
I also look at various ways to lay significantly under the tote price.
When you get it right making books, it's a buzz.
When you get it right trading it's also a buzz.
When you lay well below tote odds - buzz.
When any of these scenarios don't pan out, it can be disasterous.
Above all, I reckon you must have a second approach or way to get out without risking the entire stake.
Right now I lay, trade and make books, form or picking horses has very little to do with anything remotely regarding my experience on Betfair, except when I see very good overs on a champion racehorse or pacer.