
9th January 2008, 11:35 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Hi Chrome ,
Can you give us an example on how that idea of win lay x 1 & place bet x 2 would work using say a $6 div?
For example.
The last bit that was mentioned , where 1 unit profit would be made, has me a little confused , I would have thought it would have resulted in a 1 unit loss because 2 units would have been lost on the place back component of the bet & gained 1 unit on the win lay component, resulting in a 1 unit loss if the horse finished unplaced.
One the other hand , at 3 units per race
If the 2 units were a place lay ($2.50 = 1.5/1) & a 1 unit win lay ($6.00=5/1) , all unplaced .
= +3 units profit .
If the lay place bet x 2 finished 2nd or 3rd (at $2.50 x 2) & win lay bet x 1 but did not win. ($5-3units...)
= -2 units.
If lay place bet x 2 finished 1st,2nd or 3rd($2.50) &
win lay bet x 1 (at $6.00) came 1st. (5+6=11-3...)
= -8 units
If out of 100 races x 3units per race, 15% should win instead of lose & 30% get placed
240-300= +60 Profit.
For this to work, we are assuming that a horses price runs slightly less to its theoretical chance of winning & in this price range of $6.00win & $2.50plc (or less)
In this case, 1 divided by $6 = 16.7% theoretical chance.
Field sizes of 12+ makes this idea work best.
Total = +60 profit from every 100 races = 20% POT
Cheers.
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Yes, I'm quite tired, sorry I previously had it backwards, it's back it to win x 1 lay it to place x2 - oops.
Damn thyroid problems.
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