
25th January 2008, 09:24 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sportz
I've looked at the win returns using Unitab divs, and backing each top rated runner resulted in a tiny profit of 2%. From there, it got worse. The 2nd top raters made a loss of 12%
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I think there is a way of improving this. I normally like the 2nd rated horse to have at least 15 ratings points, because I regard 15 points as the cutoff point for horses with the best chance of winning. Well, I went back and checked these runners out. There were 14 2nd rated runners on less than 15 points. None of them won. So, if you take those 14 out, the overall loss for 2nd rated runners goes from 12% to just 7%. Still not a profit, but I reckon it would have been possible to get in the black by shopping around for the best price.
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