Hi All,

Haven't posted for a while but found some of the replies to this topic very interesting.

From my analysis of the past 30 months of racing (metropolitan S/M/B/A) here are a few tips I wish to share:

1. Sportsman's Zipform is a very reliable tool. Over 80% of winners are rated within four points of the top-rated horse;
2. Ranking the above horses by Average Prize Money and the first prize money on offer in the race is a good class measurement tool;
3. Place percentage is the best indicator of racing consistency;
4. On average over 80% of winners have an average place strike-rate greater than 45%;
5. This average rises for higher quality races;
6. Only consider weight fluctuations for horses weighted above 56kgs. Like Privateer said ensure a rise in weight is matched by a drop in class or at worst the same class;
7. Last start beaten margin is irrelevant;
8. Jockey's are irrelevant- except in Sydney, wherein the top 5 jockeys account for the bulk of winners.
9. Wide barriers only matter to on-pace runners;
10. On-pace runners account for greater than 70% of all winners.

I hope some of you find this of interest and can continue this excellent thread...


Regards,
Lucky




[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-10-08 18:06 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Luckyboy on 2003-10-08 18:08 ]