12th February 2008, 12:59 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 112
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thorns
Say for example you had a set of ratings which showed a 79% strike rate from the top 5 rated horses, and the average win dividend was $5.47, would this show a level stakes profit? I'm not enitrely sure which way you would calcutlate the profit/loss of this.
Would it be $5.47/5=1.094
Then 1.094x79=86.426 to work out the P/L?
Any help on this would be appreciated.
And if that is the correct method that I have used above, any suggestions on how to try and improve this? Perhaps only backing the top five horses which are paying $5 or more?
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Hi thorns,
I believe your maths are correct, but you seem to be assuming that the 86.426 is the return on 79, when it actually the return on 100.00 resulting in a loss.
AFA only backing horses paying $5.00 or more, I think you would find a significant reduction in your strike rate. Maybe someone with a database could help confirm this.
Rgds,
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