Thread: Ratings maths
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  #17  
Old 13th February 2008, 05:06 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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I box half the field in win, quinellas and trifectas, but I omit the fave only in Win betting. If the fave does happen to win the race I am not too concerned because even though the Win bet has lost, there is a current 72% chance of snaring the quinella and about 50% with the trifecta. Of course these percentages may reduce, time will tell...

If there's an uneven number of runners I rate upwards. For example, if the qualifying race has 13 runners I box seven. Half the field (and slightly higher) is a huge number to box but I'm hoping the method identifies those races where the divvy should be worthwhile and that the selection process provides one or two horses that are "overs" in compensation for the large outlay. My best winner so far has been $42 which was an "over" on the TAB.

Thorns, like you I also prefer high strike rates, and this method provides it. All it needs is also to provide a profit.
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