19th February 2008, 11:41 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NANOOK
Hi All
Could someone please tell me the probability of 3 or more favs winning in a row betting race to race and paying over $2. Is there a math formula to work things like this out. So far this month up to the 17th I've counted 11 times, all races.
I'd appreciate anyones knowlege on this.
cheers
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The TAB extracts 15% profit on turnover for each race - which means it pays you $8.50 when the untaxed dividend should be $10.
Let's assume that over thousands of races the untaxed dividend reflects the true probability of a horse's winning chance.
An untaxed dividend of $2 represents a 50% winning chance - but a TAB divvy of $2 would be about $2.25 if untaxed. This represents a true chance of about 44%.
The odds, therefore, of three $2 shots winning = .44 x .44 x .44.
That's about 8.5% (.085) or 1 in 12.
If you use the $2 dividend and ignore the pool deduction, then that probability is .5 x .5 x .5 = .125 or 1 in 8. |