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20th February 2008, 01:39 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Sydney
Posts: 402
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I suspect the real question is something like how likely is it for 3 favourites in a row to win at a meeting.
By my calculations for an 8 race card, and a 30% chance of a favourite winning, the probability is 12%.
For true even money shots the chance is 42%.
This is not that hard to work out with a spreadsheet.
In the 1st case, 30% of your live samples are projected right, whereas 70% project back to square zero (aka column A).
Obviously the samples that make the run of 3 play no further part in the process.
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