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20th February 2008, 09:39 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,788
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The smaller trifectas are more or less consistent with the other states. One of the smallest the system has struck was today's Mornington race 10. In NSW it paid $212, on Unitab it was $168 and STAB it was $185, so there's not too great a difference.
The trifecta pools are very small in relation to the number of combinations which easily leads to the the huge discrepencies between the TABs because a $1 bet on three, or even two, outsiders can drastically distort the divvy. In regard to the combinations factor, today's offending race (Hawkesbury race 8) had 14 starters which meant that there was a total of 2,184 trifecta combinations yet the pool only held $34,178 - approximately $17 for every combination. In contrast, there were 91 quinella combinations, the pool held $19,132 - approximately $210 for every combination. The First Four pool is even more inequitable - a few cents for every combination. In the first couple of weeks, when the method snared two particular First Fours where the divvy exceeded the total money held in the pool I then decided the inequity was too unrealistic and unpredictable, so I no longer record F.Fours in the method's results.
Because the faves fill the places for the smaller trifecta divvies, they are not prone to the distortions that the outsiders can create. So, there should not be too much difference in the 3 TABs for the lower divvies. After saying that, I'll probably have another rant if I snare a $100 divvy yet it pays double in the other 2 TABs.
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