31st March 2008, 08:40 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,425
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Chi Chi Choo Choo
There's an easier way, a quick and dirty way to test systems that is very accurate.
1. Take the maximum win dividend
2. Divide the profit by the maximum win dividend
3. The resulting number is the number of winners you're staking all hope and your bank on.
Example:
One of my systems
1187 selections
368 winners
31% S/R
Profit $130.80
POT 11.02%
Average Divvy $3.58
Maximum Divvy $28.80
$130.80 / $28.80 = 4.54
In this case, I'm clinging onto 4.50 winners to make money in the future.
So what does this mean?
With your systems, use it as a bank percentage tool, in this case I'm betting 1.23% of my bank on the selections. (4.50 winners divided by 368 total winners).
The higher this number (confidence) the more of your bank you're betting, the lower the number the lower the bets.
Your confident systems will make more money and if your others turn ugly, it will make up for it.
As average systems flourish, you're betting more and making more.
Back to my coding....
* Very few marketed systems actually show a positive result when more than two of the maximum dividends are taken out.
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