
7th April 2008, 08:54 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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I did a test on pre-post favs over all different track conditions using some 50,000 races.
I found the SR on heavy & slow was slightly less than good or dead tracks plus the average price was better on wet tracks.
I also found that all the systems I was running had the same SR but the average div was better therefore more POT.
Another observation was that it was better to back a horse with zero wet track experience than a horse that has had a run & failed on a wet track.
Also a horse with 1 success from one wet track outing performed better than horses which had 3 wet track successes.
Two success was stronger than three successes , weird.
The stats revieled that it was safe to delete all runners with wet track experience & go for the horses with zero wet track experience when rating a track that is slow or heavy.
It seems that if the horse found a wet track an unpleasant experience it, might play on his horsey brain & run accordingly.
The stats show that the highest No. of winners came from horses with 0-1 wet track experience.
One thing I also found, is wet track horses that have a history of only been placed on a wet track , very rarely ever went on to win on a wet track.
So in a nut shell, wet tracks upset most horses which have had wet track exposure over horses with zero wet track exposure in the past.
Try & target horses with 0-1 wet track runs.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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