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Old 7th April 2008, 08:54 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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I did a test on pre-post favs over all different track conditions using some 50,000 races.

I found the SR on heavy & slow was slightly less than good or dead tracks plus the average price was better on wet tracks.

I also found that all the systems I was running had the same SR but the average div was better therefore more POT.

Another observation was that it was better to back a horse with zero wet track experience than a horse that has had a run & failed on a wet track.

Also a horse with 1 success from one wet track outing performed better than horses which had 3 wet track successes.
Two success was stronger than three successes , weird.

The stats revieled that it was safe to delete all runners with wet track experience & go for the horses with zero wet track experience when rating a track that is slow or heavy.


It seems that if the horse found a wet track an unpleasant experience it, might play on his horsey brain & run accordingly.

The stats show that the highest No. of winners came from horses with 0-1 wet track experience.

One thing I also found, is wet track horses that have a history of only been placed on a wet track , very rarely ever went on to win on a wet track.

So in a nut shell, wet tracks upset most horses which have had wet track exposure over horses with zero wet track exposure in the past.
Try & target horses with 0-1 wet track runs.

Cheers.
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