DUTCHING
I feel if you want to hit a good SR with Dutching , its a strong idea to try for 3 horses a race , Deleting the Fav. e.g.Target 2nd, 3rd, 4th Fav = statistical SR 43%
Or
The Fav plus one other. e.g. 1st & 3rd Fav = statistical SR 45%
Or
Delete the 1st, 2nd, 3rd Fav = statistical SR 65%
Then bet the rest of the field to win = statistical SR 35%
Try & keep ones Dutch book percentage to 60% or less if possible.
Or
The best of the lot is to do what Don Scott did , which is Dutching to ones own accessed prices & only betting the overs from ones own selections .
This only works if you are more accurate than the general market, which is not easy to do.
It can work well if the Favs dont get up all day.
Races that are good to try ones skill , are races where Unitab has a rating of 90 pts plus for every runner in the field.
The Fav tends to fall over a lot in these very competitive races where anything can win which is what we want, if targeting say 6 runners.
It is very difficult to show a level stakes profit at level stakes , so one has to use a progressional staking of some kind that is not too aggressive.
Here are couple of progressionals that can work if one can strike the right winners.
1) Betting goes up the ladder win, lose or draw until a profit of any kind is made.
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 ect.
Have it set up for a run of at least 30 bets or more.
2)This one requires for the last bet to increase by 25% at a time.
Repeat the last bet if a winner is struck if still not in profit.
Start again once in profit
Example - $5 x 1.25
5 6 8 10 12 15 19 24 30 37 47 58 73 91 114 ect.
Dutching to Outlay
.The Dutching method I prefer is the Dutching to Outlay , where the same amount of profit is made , no matter which of the say 3 horses wins.
e.g. Outlay say $20 over the 3 selections total profit minus outlay +$19
In other words , we O/L $20 & got back $39.
This way , the amount outlayed can be controlled which is very important if one is going to use a progrssional of any kind.
Dutching to Return
.One of the other Dutching medthods that can work well is Dutching to Returm a certain amount, this is the one Don Scot used as metioned in my previous posting , it is less aggressive but it also shows less profit in a progrssional sequence because its profit will vary depending on which of the 3 horses gets up . It is still very good.
Dutching to Profit
.The most aggressive, is Dutching to Race Profit.
Example- Profit target say $10 outlay could be anything from say $5-$200 depending on how many horses are taken, but the profit will be fixed at $10
Its very good if you dont strike many losers or your book percentage is around the 50% mark..
If you want to do Dutching properly, one has to use Betfair or a Bookie at fixed odds. Using the TAB is terrible for prices & the constant changing of prices after the bet goes on. If your selection happens to lose, it nearly always appears the div would be higher. If your selection wins it nearly always pays less than what you budgeted for , weird.
One is betting into a TAB market of 118.5% as opposed to around 105% Betfair market.
That is a huge difference especially when Dutching where every point is crucial.
If using Betfair it is vital to use one auncillary software to operate the Dutching quickly .e.g. Fairbot , Bet Angel ect.
These programs also allows the user to make 1 cent bets if need be.
Rather than using the standard clumbsey Betfair interfase which has a $6 min bet per horse which wont suit most punters when Dutching.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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