21st April 2008, 04:19 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,415
|
|
Stix and Bhagwan are on the right track.
It is mindset, theory and imbedded wives tales that cements these ideas.
Therefore when a track is heavy, and the punter has a bad day, they assign it to "****** wet tracks, I'll never bet them again" and have the attitude that the folklore must be right.
If you'd backed topweight in a welter - you'd lose heavily.
If you stayed away from wide barriers, you'd miss a lot of value.
If you never bet on a horse second up, you'd miss more winners than avoided.
If you never bet wet tracks, you'd also be missing a premium strike rate.
Inevitably, a lot of "rules" have been pushed by bookies to ensure you miss value and only bet on very poor value. Those that haven't are purely punters excuses to the missus or themselves.
The statistics show that the heavier the track condition, the more accurate the prices, in fact a Fast track is the worst betting proposition, followed by transitional surfaces being Dead or Slow.
Good or Heavy being the optimum of accuracy and strike rate.
It comes down to superstition versus reality, afterall, every odds on favourite that gets rolled is not "pulled".
|