OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - View Single Post - The sky is falling.... Throw your hands up in the air...

Quote:

Originally Posted by crash

Another big problem with slow and heavy tracks is that most of the horses have little or no wet track form especially 2 and 3yr. olds and even 4yr. olds. Trying to line-up form in these circumstances is often almost betting blind [throwing darts].

Wet tracks? Bookies [and Betfair layers] love 'em!

Saw you revised your inital post to point out the younger horses, but.....

Wouldn't breeding give you a lead as to a horses chances in a particular going? So you wouldn't be totally blind..... perhaps partially.... but again it's only one variable.

With regard to "lining up form"............so do we disregard good racing form on good tracks when it is wet? I would suspect that recent racing is one of the most important considerations when people do ratings/form. But wet tracks, it doesn't apply....?

Agree unexposed form on wet tracks is an important aspect to consider, but there are ways of assessing a runners chances.

You often hear that this breed or that breed likes it firm or likes the sting out of the ground and it's all based on breeding, bit like assessing if a horse will run out a solid 1600m or not, a good pointer is it's breeding. How do you assess a 2, 3 or 4 yo on running 1600m+ if it's every only run upto 1200m? I think looking at the breeding would give you an indication....

Agree or otherwise?