25th April 2008, 11:49 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 2,628
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Crash I have a feeling that Hot Danish won't be very far off the lead in this race there isn't alot of natural speed there in the race and if she jumps nicely I can see her being in the 1st 3 or 4 if the fence is off they'll is be getting off there anyway so Clark will be able to get her off the no worries, so many times when the fence is off the races are won by the horses saving ground on the corner and getting out wider in the straight.
I have had alot of people telling me that Hot Danish's form is far inferior to Forensics and IMO this is nothing short of garbage. the horse I am using to try and match them up is a horse that raced fairly well against both horses in Like Me Wild, Like Me Wild finished a nose behind Hot Danish on a dead track in which Hot Danish carried 59kgs in and Like Me Wild carried 53kgs.
In Like Me Wild's next start she ran 4th or 5th (not sure now) beaten 2.5 lengths by Forensics however on this occasion Like Me Wild was carrying 56.5kgs and Forensics carrying 54kgs. so in lining this up I know it is hard but this is as good as I can do it as I feel Like Me Wild performed on both outings alot of the others in the race at Canterbury just did not handle the track at all, There is an 8.5kgs swing for about a 2.4 length margin say what you like I know weights don't always mean everything but on that atleast I feel Hot Danish's form is every bit as good as Forensics.
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