25th April 2008, 10:16 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 2,628
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I am going to give my thoughts on each runner here working with a rating sitting somewhere around a Heavy 9 as I can't see how it will be better than that
1. Mentallity: He's a quality horse but I am really not sold on the fact he is going anywhere near as good as he was last year when he should have nearly won the race, the Heavy track is no help at all to him either so I have to say although I do have a good opinion of the horse I can't have him here at all especially with 57.5kgs on his back.
2 Sniper's Bullet: Last years straddie winner who IMO will struggle to run out the mile he has had 2 starts at the distance one in which Mentallity gave him wind burn as he went past him and the other when beaten half a length by Casino Prince, he had the cushiest of runs on both occasions and is drawn not to get those favours this time once again I am leaving him out of my picks for the main reason I truly don't feel he is going to get a run easy enough for him to run thr trip out.
3. Casino Prince: Alot of people seem to be warming to this bloke and while I concede he has some chance he is a horse I have trouble backing these days, he has won 2 of his last 10 or so races and although they have been at a high level I question that he is truly top notch, I know he won the Chipping Norton but I'd have been more disappointed with him if he didn't get home over Sniper's Bullet at the trip, I question the Chipping Norton Form I know Tuesday's Joy ran 2nd and has won 2 GR1s since but she isnot a miler and wasnot beaten far in that event, he is weighted fairly well I question him on the surface however some will include him I won't be it may cost me but i'll take my chances there.
4. German Chocolate: Hard to give a wrap here doesn't like the wet and was thrashed last start and I doubt he runs the trip out either no!
5. Megatic: Good quality WA youngster who comes in with a set back for that reason and the wet track and the fact he is badly weighted I can't have him.
6. Eskimo Queen: Good quality mare that has burned me so many times and never ever rewarded, she'll run the trip out and she'll handle the conditions without a concern very good jockey on board as well, she is one of the main contenders.
7. Marching: I am surprised he is running in this can't have him at all
8. Valedictum: he is a good old horse without any weight on his back likes the trip and the wet won't concern I can't see him winning however is a place chance though.
9. All Silent: I have a big opinion of this bloke he is the fresh horse coming from nowhere here and it might be 12 months to early for him he is a 4yo though so maybe being lightly raced might have helped him so far, Robl on board doesn't hurt his chances he rode him in his 1st 3 race starts so you would think that he would know the horse pretty well, he looks asthough the wet track won't worry him but you don't know till they get on one of these, he is one of the major contenders here IMO to much raw ability to leave out.
10. Falaise: Going in solid form but I don't think he is good enough at all to be considered here maybe a very very rough place hope.
11. Friday Creek: I doubt the track conditions suit and I really doubt he will run out the mile good luck if your backing him but he has been ridden a treat his last few and simply couldn't get there.
12. Just Mambo: No Hope IMO.
13. Molotov: Real surprised to see him here no hope
14. Forensics: Top quality youngster who is on a tear here at the moment the wet track is the real big wuery here the Flying Spur breed usually handle it a bit but the Dehere side of the dam has to put real big question marks on it may even be a slight query at the mile on a big track not sure, on a drier track she is one of the top selections but on this track with that barrier she will be pretty much coming from last and I feel that is going to be a huge feat to accomplish in those conditions tomorrow I am reluctantly leaving her out.
15. Gallant Tess: Finally drew a gate here she has a master jockey onboard who can really get that bit extra out of his horses for mine the biggest query is how much last week flattened her she had a tough tough run on heavy track and is backing up in 7 days for the 1st time otuside of that I have her included in my thoughts as I feel she'll handle the ground. I am undecided yet whether to include her in my quaddie or not, if you like her have something on her Lloyd will give you every chance.
16. Hot Danish: She draws a beatutiful gate (maybe) and drops a stack in weight from a gutsy performance last week where I would be shocked if she might of needed the run a bit (she was nearly a month between runs) Tim Clark maynot have the big race experience of alot of the other jockeys but he knows this horse better than anyone and he has had a group 1 victory just a few weeks ago which is always a weight off the mind. In my mind and I have thought this for awhile she is the one they all have to beat just to well weighted here not to like her chances especially when you consider she has carried 57kgs, 59kgs & 57kgs in her 3 runs this prep she won't know herself with 52.5kgs.
17. Pinnacles: I can't have him no good enough IMO.
18. Theseo: Once again another who I feel just isn't quite upto the mark but he like Pinnacles atleast might get through the ground.
19. Serious Speed: She is a good quality horse but I feel she has only beaten so solid ones getting here especially in Murtajill, she got the gun run last start won't get it this time by the looks Newitt will have to be at his absolute best to pull this off, Have no idea if she will handle the conditions she'll be in my quaddie I won't be backing her
20. Triple Honour: I still can't believe he lost to Weekend Hussler there a few weeks ago, his last run was ok and is drawn well here with a nice weight drop and will get a good ride from a bloke who would have to be one of the luckiest ******s alive when it comes to these races, I have a lingering doubt on this horse whether it is justified or not I have no idea but I amnot sure he is good enough to win this or not as I feel he should have hung on to win against Weekend Hussler in the Guineas obviously there is nothing at all wrong with that form but I have a doubt there and it won't go away. I will have him in my quaddy but I doubt I'll back him at all.
of the emergencies I could give place chances to God's Hand and Fighting Fund but nothing more than that.
This is my order and probably what I will box up for a percentage of a trifecta tomorrow
1. Hot Danish
2. Eskimo Queen
3. All Silent
4. Triple Honour
5. Gallant Tess
6. Serious Speed
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