To follow up on my last post, here's how those categories performed today in the 4 main tracks (Brisbane/Sydney/Melbourne/Adelaide metro):
The
widest drawn horse in each race returned $69.10w / $52.80p, and had strike rates of 18% and 46% respectively over the 33 races. Good value to be had for both the win and place.
The
lowest TAB # horse in each race returned $56.4w / $21.00p, and had strike rates of 6% and 15% respectively over the 33 races. Good value for the win bets, but the strike rates seem a bit too low. Maybe the mug punters have this one right...avoid the lowest TAB # horses.
The
horse with the highest API (average prizemoney earned per race) in each race returned a miserly $15.80w / $24.60p, and had strike rates of 15% and 45% respectively over the 33 races. I think this is going to surprise some people. Yes, these horses will often be considered the best in the race because of the higher API, but they're just so overbet, they can't be trusted to turn a profit. Best to avoid these horses.
The
favourite horse in each race returned $33.00w / $27.6p, and had strike rates of 33% and 52% respectively over the 33 races. It's just too risky to have to rely on such a high strike rate for the win just to break even. Best to rule a line through them.
The
horses racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start returned $48.2w / $53.2p, and had a win strike rate of 13.4% for the 67 selections. Again, these horses are overbet, and lose all value. Like favourites, just rule a line through them.
So, what if we combined these ideas. What are the results of the horses that had the widest barrier, were not the lowest TAB #, were not the horse with highest API in the race, were not the favourite, and are not racing for less prizemoney today than they did last start?
20 selections returned $59.40w / $38.10p, and had strike rates of 10% and 40% respectively. Not too bad. The win strike rate is a bit low, so maybe it would be better to focus on place bets.
FYI, the prices are based on the TABonline website, and while I tried to be accurate in my calculations, I won't promise they're all correct, so if you happen to find a mistake, well...good for you.
I basically just wanted to follow up on those ideas in my previous post to see if they might be worthy for others to incorporate into their system(s). Hopefully, someone will find at least some of this input useful.
And no I didn't bet those 20 selections today (unfortunately). :C