In principle Kelly or even Half Kelly is a way of taking advantage of overs, but for mine using overs to determine bet size in percentage of bank is dangerous and increases the chances of going bust.

Whether this thread should have started with the Kelly Criterion or not, it is one of the most dangerous and obviously lucrative but depends entirely on the roll of the dice.

Becareful's percentage of bank (increasing /reducing) is the safest way of minimising risk and taking advantage of good fortune.

If you know the fair price you should be receiving about your bet and can plainly see overlays (your assessment must be correct), then using MODIFIED Kelly is the best option.

I would bet according to the overlay, however, using this to determine the percentage of bank to bet is not, in my opinion, the correct way to do it.

If anyone has a spreadsheet of bets where it shows a level stakes profit over at least 100 bets and the average dividend is more than $2.00, I have a plan I'm willing to share and show how I can increase the POT usually by at least 5%.
I'm not interested in your system, you can leave out the horse names and race numbers if you wish, I just want to demonstrate something for my own benefit as well.
They must be realtime bets though.

send to: racestats at hotmail dot com and I'll return my findings within a day with explanation.