Hi Ubetido,
The main betting figure one will be needing to look at is either the Blue box or the Pink box.
WIN BETTING
If one would like to make a win bet for say 20c greater div than what is showing in the Blue box or want the greater price as show in the Pink box, then change your price amount before submitting & there is a high chance you will get it, just wait a bit after sending off the bet & keep your eye on the Pink box , this will tell you if you are close to haveing your win price being matched.
Most of the betting starts approx 7 mins till jump.
If one wishes for the stongest price without thinking too much, I have found the best price is achieved approx 45-30 secs till jump. for the majority of the time.
One could try second guessing what the best price should be, but 90% of the time , 30-45 secs out seems to work better than second guessing.
I have read that the Betfair price is the most accurate to its its true chance of winning than any other price market e.g. Bookies , TAB, Pre-post newspaper & ratings experts.
e.g. $4.00 = 1 divided by 4% = 25% chance of winning.
e.g. $3.00 = 1 divided by 3% = 33.33% chance of winning.
.85 FORMULA
One theory is to now multiply this percentage by .85 & this now gives us a more accurate winning chance percentage.
e.g. 33.33% x .85 = 28.33% which sounds closer to the mark.
One can adopt this .85 formula to the pre-post market & go from there, bettiing all those selected that have a chance, that are paying greater than the price you have.
LAY BETTING.
Be vary careful if one wishes to entertain Lay betting.
My stongest recommendation if one wishes to give this a go, is to convert the price into fractional odds , then divide this amount into 1/25th. of bank
Example.
$1000 bank at 1/25th = $40 a race.
Price $4.00 = 3/1 fractional odds.
3/1 divided into $40 = $13.33 Lay bet this on our horse to fall over.
If it falls over, we profit $13.33
If it gets up to win instead of lose , our payout (Liability) is 3 x 13.33 = $40
Doing it this way, one is always in control because the max payout will always be $40 & we have 25 shots, before our bank is depleted . Time to find a better selection stratergy.
Try & target horses around $6 & less for best results, because when those higher priced horses get up, they bit us hard.
Maybe try & target the 3rd Fav in every race if its priced around the $6 mark, that one feels has a poor chance of winning to start off with. These have an 85% chance of falling over because their winning historical stat is only 15%.
This means the 3rd fav should win approx 1.2 races in every 8, so if ones price is $6 & less we should be in profit by race 8.
There will be hiccups along the way, but this is a strong basis to work from.
One will naturally think that targeting the higher prices will deliver the best result, well you will be amazed how many of these will get up to bite you. You will naturally ask yourself the question, "why does'nt this happen when I bet these to win?"
That's the harsh cruel world of lay betting.
There is nothing wrong with it, so as long one is fully aware of what one is dealing with.
Remember Betfair needs Lay bettors & punters who like to do Trading (Betting the Blue & Pink side on the same horse to return a profit no matter what the result) to make the whole thing balance up to close as possible to 100% the market.
Also when one makes a Lay bet , the said $40 Liability is taken out of our Betfair A/C first . If successful this is given back to us, plus say $13.33 which is our profit.
Betfair will now deduct 5% commission on $13.33 profit for that race.
Welcome to the new world of Betfair , the most democratic betting exchange a punter could have, where many Democraticly officials dont want punters to have e.g. Many parts of the USA, the said greatest Democracy in the world.
They dont want the people to have it, they would prefer you buy a loaded machine gun instead... its safer...?
Cheers.
__________________
Cheers.
|