24th May 2008, 12:51 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,437
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Onion
G'day lads,
I have been doing my own Saturday Ratings for about 3 years now and database them religiously. They are quite good and better than Prepost.
Anyways about 2 years ago I was looking at this system using my top raters with a few filters and gave up after a slight run of outs. I kept the notes as it was still in profit and rechecked it this week and was startled to see the results as I know this game is damn hard to make a buck or two long term.
I am very confident as it has hit back with a vengeance and this year so far it is showing a 30% profit. The filters are the same as 2 years ago, hasn't been changed. Average bets are about 3 a week and the results are one tote only (so plenty of scope for much bigger returns). All price ranges are showing a profit too (even under $3.00).
I am not interested in selling anything, just want to know from experienced punters if I should give this one a hit. I am quite happy to send someone an excel sheet with selections in order and graphs for further detailed analysis.
Results are below..
Selections 474
Wins 179
WR $595
WSR 38%
WPOT 26%
Places 338
PR $502
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60
3 LROs 15,11,9
and since I shelved it (Last 2 years portion)..
Selections 303
Wins 114
WR $371
WSR 38%
WPOT 22%
Places 215
PR $320
PSR 71%
PPOT 6%
3 Max Wins $11.50, $10.30, $9.20 (same 3)
3 Max Places $4.10, $3.80, $2.60 (same 3)
3 LROs 15,11,9 (same 3)
As you can see win/place strike rate remains at 38%/71%.
Any advice much appreciated.
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Onion,
It's a crying shame you gave up, it seems very apeeling 
Your overall profit is 121 units
Divide that by $11.50, (max divvy) is 10.52 winners making up the profit.
Your average win dividend is $3.32
This gives 36.44 winners making up the profit.
Your system only relies on 28% of the profit from outsiders and 72% from the average dividend.
So far excellent!
Combine this with Betfair SP and you probably have a 35% to 40% win edge.
You are also relying on 6.8 placegetters for the place component.
My feedback -
Looks the goods, as long as you can withstand the outs and not give up, this looks like it has legs, very nice legs too
It is rare to find such high POT not relying on longshots and rarer to find this kind of system that returns a statistical place profit not generated from one longshot placegetter.
You're definitely onto something because the win and place dynamics reflect it's not an anomoly or fluke.
Bet wise and prosper  |