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Old 29th May 2008, 02:33 PM
Tonymess Tonymess is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 104
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Both very juicy prices Chuck and I hope they can go deep into the draw for you.

Youzhny has made the Semis of a Slam (US Open in 2006) and made the 4th round here last year so certainly has the mettle to make it late into a Slam draw.

Having said that his lead up form has been a bit off and I've actually personally backed Maximo Gonzalez to cause an upset tonight at the 5.75. However if you've taken 1000-1 you only need a small stake on Max Gonzo to cover your intial bet.

Robredo has made at least the fourth round of a Slam 12 times and six of his last 7 here he's made the fourth round or the quarter finals - his only "failure" being 2002 when he was knocked out by Agassi in the third round. Does seem to struggle beyong the Quarters but hey if you have one of the last 8 standing at 500-1 you should be able to make a book around that (of course hoping that either or both of Nadal and Federer have been knocked out already).

I always like to break the draw into quarters and attempt to find the four Semi Finalists, backing one or two at nice prices, hoping they make it to the last 8 or so and then making a book around them.

This year the top quarter does look as though Federer will make it and you don't need to be a rocket scientist to call that. Since being knocked out in R3 here in 2004 he's at least made the Semis in the subsequent 15 Grand Slams, winning 10 of them and making the Final twice more. If he has to go under then Gonzo, Wawrinka and Soderling the most likely.

Next chunck of the draw I believe is the open section with Ferrer, Stepanek (who beat Federer in Rome), Davydenko and Robredo the most likely. On ratings I have Hewitt in that mix, however with no lead up form I'm discounting him. This is the section of the draw where some value may come. Davydenko the 4th shortest in the market at 44.0 (Betfair). Stepanek at 510.0 at Betfair look tempting as if he does play Federer in the Semis people will be taking the Rome result into account and you may get a fair price Federer (none of the 1.01 rubbish that goes on day in day out).

Third section sees Djokovic the one and I actually have him a shorter price than Federer to win the whole event - his issue is going to be beating Nadal in the Semis. Outside of Djokovic I actually have Lapentti, Bolelli then Blake, which shows the lack of depth in this section. Having said that Lapentti did make the Semis of the Aussie Open back in 1999 and the Quarters of Wimbledon in 2002 so he's no slouch. If Djokovic's body cracks (which it has been known to do) maybe the iron Ecquadorian can take advantage in the quarters.

Bottom section sees Nadal at a prohibitive price to get through, with only Almagro, Nalbandian and Verdasco the others with any show of making the Semis.

No genius here but I'll call Federer to beat Ferrer in one Semi and Nadal to beat Djokovic in the other, with Nadal making it 28 wins and zero losses at this event in the Final.

Of course my opinion only and all are welcome.

For my prices and comments on every match of the French see the link below.

Cheers

Tony
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