1st June 2008, 10:17 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 368
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
I agree with what your saying Chrome, but a horse's chances of winning is not decided by price moves, if they did denote winning chance %, all favorites would win, but 7 out of 10 don't. Why? Because of all the unknown factors involved.
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My 2 cents... A Fav. who has drifted in the market statistically lose more than those who firm.
The average SR for odds-on horses winning is around 50% small lose, but if you backed them at over the odds like he did 2.70 you would win, if he couldn't get that price (or one he thought was VALUE) then no bet. That is how he bets. In the interview he said he would keep backing a horse till it came down to certain price.
He works on small % on large turnover, that is why he said the average punter cann't win on betfair paying 5% Comm. (don't agree) thats the bookie coming out in him.
Agree with you about arbitrage betting, just need two big banks
Cheers |