Well it has been awhile but I'm back
Looking at Swan Hill tomorrow.
It looks a good day's racing for day one of Swan Hill's three day carnival with good sized fields and the 473 metre straight should allow all horses to have their chance if they are good enough.
There's a few runners we are interested in tomorrow, (depending of course on price): -
R3.
Mega Star Milly seemingly, is coming off stronger form lines than her rivals. She has been competitive in all her races to date and with barrier 7 and Brad Rawiller on board she gets plenty of ticks. The prospect of a firmer track and back to 1200m also appear in her favour.
We are looking for
$3.50 or better.
R5. Mookatmee couldn't have been more impressive last start, coming from the rear of the field to win his maiden comfortably at Ballarat, beating Swirly Dream by 1.5L. Swirly Dream, although still a maiden, has proven competitive in much stronger races. The only real query is whether
Mookatmee is just as good on top of the ground, but we were sufficiently impressed last start, to give him the benefit of the doubt here.
The surface query may help us get our price of
$3.50 or better.
R8. Royal Ida is the class horse in this race and a proven weight carrier. Some of these, (especially the claiming horses), get in pretty light by comparison, but Royal Ida has given away plenty of weight to better rivals in the past and the first up run on his less preferred (slow) surface over 1000m at the Valley was good enough to demonstrate that he is in for another good preparation. The step up to 1200 metres and also a good track are both pluses. Plenty of pace in this race which should set things up for Royal Ida to come swooping down the long Swan Hill straight.
Anything better than
$4.00 is acceptable to us here.
R10. Knockout was less than a length from Skiddaw Peak, Blitzem Riley and Trick Of Light at Sale over the 1600m last prep. His last start on a heavy track at Mornington in a C4 was also full of merit. We think he is the best bet of the day here, stepping up to the mile for the first time this prep, and back to a firmer track which we also think he prefers. The inside barrier is not ideal as he likes to get back in his races, but at least he'll get a soft run in transit from that draw and the Swan Hill straight should give him sufficient time to get out and run over the top of his rivals.
His best form is a few classes better than anything he meets here and we are interested in anything better than
$4.00, which should be on.
Best tomorrow is in the last -
Knockout.
Good luck all.