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Old 12th June 2008, 10:02 AM
Try Try Again Try Try Again is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Hi Guys,

Interesting thread which got me thinking about setting the CF and PR to 3 and everything else to zero. (Thanks Michaelg for getting my brain out of idle!)
The rules I have used since 30th May are :-
  1. Only consider Australian race meetings
  2. Top point scorer(s) is the selection
  3. Delete all horses that have had only one run or are 1st or 2nd up from a spell
  4. Delete all horses with Unitab Rating <= 90
  5. Delete all horses not placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd in both its past 2 starts
  6. Delete all horses that have won their past 2 start
Results of these rules are :-

92 bets, 23 winners (25.0% S/R), 53 places (57.6% S/R)

Using the "worst case" scenario I have used the dividends of the Home TAB in these calculations. Obviously we would expect to get a better result with the numerous betting options open to us.

Win Bank +$16.20 Win POT % = 17.6%
Place Bank -$2.70 Place LOT % = -2.9%

I have also kept the Best of 3 Totes results

Win Bank +$34.85 Win POT % = +37.9%
Place Bank +$7.00 Place POT % = +7.6%

Bets for today would be

Sale R4#5 Destinationunknown
Hawkesbury R7#1 Ain't It Magic
Hawkesbury R9#5 Delenatii
Gold Coast R2#3 Girls Jeuney
Northam R5#5 Telluride
Northam R5#6 Snooperclyde
Northam R8#7 Ma Chienne

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