michael,


Just a suggestion when you are trialling systems. You need to take into account how likely the current results are due to luck. to do this simply just keep a record of the number of expected winners. This is easy to do as it is the sum of 1/price.

For example if you had 3 horses at odds at $3.00 ,$2.00 and $2.50 you would add up 1/3.00 + 1/2.00 + 1/2.50 = 1.23

This means 1.23 winners were expected in those 3 bets. If you do this for over 50 bets it will start to be more meaningful. You can then run a chi square test to work out if it is base don luck or not.

If you not sure how to run a chi square test or can't be bothered then a general principle is that you need at least 1.5 times winners then the expected winners. For example if the expected winners are 15 after 50 bets then you are doing ok if you have hit at least 23 winners in the 50 bets. This is just a rough guide and the chi square test is a better indicator.

The good thing about this is it helps remove faulty profits which are due to luck. For example after 50 bets I might be showing a profit of 10% ($55 returned) but if the return came from 2 winners ( $25 and $30 ) and the expected winners are 10 then I know that this profit is purely based on luck.

Hope that helps you out ...

Good Luck.