The 20% relates to how many overall winners were last start winners.

It is a different question to ask how many of all the last start winners actually get up to do it again because there can be more than one in every race then the answer is 14.3%.

There is a noticeable improvement if one targets the horses that had won in the last 21 days.

The stats start dropping away after 21 days.

If one wishes to improve the SR of all last start winners. Have a look at this.

.Target the No.1 ranked place-getter in the field.
This is a strong starting point for the exercise , these top ranked without any other criteria win 21% of all races for a small LOT.

Top Plc Ranked and...
.Ran 1st in both last 2 starts SR 28.7% +3% POT
e.g. 1,1

.Ran 1st last start & placed 2nd or 3rd at 2nd LS (e.g. 2,1 or 3,1) SR 24.2% & +21% POT
e.g. 2,1 or 3,1

.Ran 1st at 2ndLS & was placed 2nd or 3rd at its LS 25.5% SR & 19.9% POT
e.g. 1,2 or 1,3

.Ran 1st after resuming SR 29% POT 22% POT
e.g. anything * 1

The worst result was a runner that ran 1st at its 2ndLS & finished unplaced at its LS 18.2% SR , -14.6 LOT
e.g.
1,4 or 1,5 or 1,6 ect.

This is all according to a book I got all this from , the POT looks too generouse to me, but if one uses Betfair I can see it working, but not with the TAB prices.

Cheers.

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Cheers.