Hi Paul
There is a real art in what you are trying to do there Paul & it can work.
I had a friend who did very well for 9 mnths & made thousands.

I warned him about the run of outs for his SR which was 28% would be approx 20 outs in a row, he didn't believe me & when it happened he was gutted, then stopped doing it. Weird.
If he stuck to it it would easily recoup itself over time.
I guess he didn't have the right temperament & discipline.

I notice you mention Wt up 3kg .
This usually means the horse is coming down in class.

If it happens to be the market Fav, it is considered to be a positive Factor.

But a very negative factor if its not the market Fav.

Its a question of Ying & Yang (Balance of life)

The average prize money as mentioned by Crackbone is also a strong indicator in relation to class up or down.

Have a look at a UK interactive site called Adrien Massey (Google) for some interesting stats.

Cheers.

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Cheers.