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Originally Posted by partypooper
Chrome, I don't doubt your word, but surely a Bookie could only go bust if he/she was an opinion bookie? As otherwise his book is always balanced to win isn't it? and as I understand it he can always refuse a bet? I'm not deliberately causing an argument, I'm just curious to confirm what I've been led to believe is true!
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No worries partypooper,
to answer you....
Opinion bookies go bust, but so do others.
It isn't aways balanced, in fact it is rarely balanced.
The bookie can only refuse a bet over his rails limit, he cannot refuse bets from different people.
He can refuse a bet to lose $10,000 from one guy, but cannot refuse bets to lose $1,000 from twenty guys.
Where this becomes a problem, is when there is a sharp tumble on one runner, every day at every track, there's always a "go" on one runner.
The bookie can't layoff because every other bookie is in the same boat, if he dumps it on the tote, he's making the loss worse,as the odds are usually worse and his cash will make a snowball avalanche, he can dump it on Betfair, but there's not enough liquidity to do so.
So he faces perhaps twice the payout on that horse than any other in the field, and probably for the day.
Enough "right" tumbles in a row could easily see your average bookie hit the wall.
Only the high rollers can weather the storm.
However, it also depends when it happens, if it's early he should be fine, because he can manipulate the book to cause less damage, but if it's a last minute dump (excuse the obvious toilet humour), he can be in serious trouble.
That's why the big boys actually pay for information and have a buddy network like the bureau of meteorology.
They signal incoming shrapnel.
I've been studying bookmakers for quite a while, the secret society, and have a leading bookie in Sydney emailing me often. I am extremely amazed at what a secret society it is, if your not a member, you are the opposition
Try and find bookies ledgers, bookies balancing books, bookies software on Google and all you'll find are vague references and garbage.
I have been educated somewhat though recently, by this bookie and my eyes have been opened somewhat.
It's a much tougher game than punting - believe it or not.
I never did, and now I have a whole new respect for the bagmen.