REPLY TO SPORTZ
Hi Sportz, I have a booklet of par times for all of the usual racetracks but I focus on Perth, Sydney and Melbourne. After each Saturday meet I record the times in an exercise book and using the techniques in a bookelt published by 'horsetorque' I adjust the raw times for the type of race concerned (eg a 2yr fillies race, open handicap race, etc) and the state of the track. I then record the results in the book and so over time have built up a database (on paper not on the computer unfortunately) of speed ratings for each horse. So when I am doing the form on a Friday night I look at the horses previous starts and list the speed rating that horse achieved on that day. The speed rating is a number relative to 100, so anything over 105 catches my eye, as does anything over 95 ist up. So for example on the weekend I shortlisted the following horses:
Perth:
Black in Time 96 ist up
Danny Beau 98 ist up
Dark Target 110 ist up
Kens Double 109
Nollomara 109
From the above I bet on Dark Target and Kens Double
Melbourne:
Bolle 111
Commanding Hope 119
Heart 111
Scenic Silver 120
Speedymac 115
Streetcar Desire 109
Stavka 121
THreedee 112
Apple Lode 108
Out of these I backed Stavka, Threedee and Applelode in the one race.
So the inital cut is made based on the 105/95 rule and then I have a closer look and consider things such as the likley pace of the race, barrier position, and if the horse is up in weights and distance, etc.
So despite betting on 3 races and have 2 winners out of the three, I ended up about $1 behind, so must be doing something wrong. It didn't help that Stavka and Dark Target were so short.
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