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29th July 2008, 09:22 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Hi Shaun,
The Liability is the risk you took wheather it was successful or not.
Pretend you are placing the bets all at once before any have jumped.
e.g. 10 selections all at 10/1 = total Liability (Risk) before any have jumped, is 10 horses x $100 Liab each = $1000 this is the total Liability (Risk) one is pepared to take.
Multiply all your selections by their fractional odds, then add them together, to work out the liability we are talking about.
If all 10 were successful.
Prof $100 was made
$1000 Liability Risk = 10% POT
With a 100% SR.
Now if one goes against you, that wins instead of losing
Payout -$100
Incomming +$90
Loss -$10
With a 90% SR
When one looks at figures in this scary light , it does not look as attractive as win betting on face value, it's hard work.
It is often claimed by experts that its a strong idea to try & target selections priced $5.50 & less ,unfortunatly, this is where the majority of the winners are also.
It's a bit like playing tip toe through the mine field.
The idea here is if & when one gets bit , it wont take as many success to claw it back.
Lay selection plan you may wish to have a look at .
Target the bottom rated Neural selection for each race, a make one selection per venue from this lot.
Preferably no greater than 50/1
Do this for all venues on the day.
One selection per venue e.g. 8 races at that venue = 1 selection.
Divide the horses fractional price into 5% of your bank
e.g. Bank $300 at 5% = $15 this becomes your max Liability for the race.
Now divide the horse's fractional odds into this figure.
e.g. $15 divided by say 15/1 ($16.00) = O/L $1.00
This is one of the safer ways to Lay bet because it controls the Liability , that's the secret... its the Liability one gets bit at, that can kill us in the long run.
Try also Lay betting the Fav , not to run a place.
The Liability here is nice & low because they are mostly odds-on prices.
Using our betting to fractional price method.
Fav is say $1.50 not to run a place.
$15.00 divided by 0.5/1 = O/L $30
If successful +$30 profit.
If unsuccessful -$15 loss.
Cheers.
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Cheers.
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