On 2003-10-27 21:47, gunny72 wrote:
I like the idea of reducing your outlay but any staking plan that increases stakes is doomed to failure because the dreaded run of outs will come

Hi Gunny,

I don't believe that any staking plan is automatically *DOOMED* to failure as long as you setup your punting bank correctly. Bhagwan posted in another thread a very sensible rule of thumb that is pretty spot on in my limited experience...

The guide was to setup a bank 3.5 times the theoretical worst run of outs, and there was a table of those as well.

For a staking plan, this would need to be modified by the maximum bet size as well. For instance, if you had a staking plan that called for a maximum bet 5 times that of your initial bet, then I would suggest you'd have to setup a bank 17.5 times the expected worse run of outs.

I posted a level staking plan not so long ago called Chasing Losses with Level Stakes and the only response I got was that I might miss some shorter priced winners....My plan suggested increasing the odds you need get to place a bet rather than increasing your stake - a very sound approach I think.

I'm not setup to test this sort of approach at the moment, but I might be able to set it up at some stage. My initial reaction is that such an approach could very easily prolong your losing streak.

Let's assume for the moment that you start to increase your minimum odds required... If we take as a general rule that the longer odds winners are less likely to come home, then the effect of only betting on longer and longer odds horses is that your selections will become less likely to win.

Another side effect of this is that you will have less and less bets, until you get to the stage where you might be waiting weeks for one of your selections to be at the odds you require.

Cheers,
Chris.