10th September 2008, 01:50 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,432
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by crash
3rd., 4th., or 5th up would be about peek fitness for most horses except those under trainers well known for preparing forwardly fit horses 1st or 2nd up.
I've never liked horses that have backed up after 7 days, especially if their last run was on a wet track. It takes the stuffing out of them. 10 to 21 days seems a good rest period without losing fitness. 4 to 5yr. olds seem to do most of the winning and I think about $5.60 or less SP account's for most of the winners.
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Crash, this just stood out to me, I'm not having a swipe at you at all.
I would avoid 2yo's backing up quickly, they don't handle the pressure of a lot of racing.
If we eliminate 2yo's and look at other horses who won their last start within 7 days and are favourite this start, we come up with a 2.57% win POT at just TAB prices, and only a 2.23% place LOT at TAB prices.
If we do the same, where the last start was on a Heavy track, we get 73.33% Win POT and 21.56% Place POT.
For Slow, 20.43% win POT and 3.76% place POT.
Just eliminate Colts and Fillies and you wind up making money.
Sorry if it seems I'm always correcting you, the data is just sitting in front of me is the only reason I responded. |