
30th October 2003, 07:58 AM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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G'day folks,
Barriers have been done to death here before and the outcome was a bit mixed.
M/V has a definate outside barrier bias due to the camber and suits local Jockeys. Note last Saterday as an example, the locals cleaned up regardless of barrier because they know the tracks down here better [just as regardless of where you live, do you notice that you win more in your home state ?].
Most published barrier results are misleading due to the simple fact that inside barriers have more runs than outside barriers due to field size [barriers 1-7 have more runs than barriers 8-16 and so on so naturaly produce more winners].
The general thing to look for is that leaders are naturaly better off sloted in inside barriers and its easy to work out what suits other runninng styles and what doesn't suit. Generaly good jockeys are little effected by barrier draw though a 3kg. claiming apprentice might have some trouble with a barrier that dosn't suit the horse's racing style.
The stats. that take field size into account from various race distances show very slight bias toward the inside but not enough to be meaningful. Basicly the longer the race the less it matters but wet track condt. increase the bias at some tracks more than others. With MV it seems to go the other way due to the camber according to the Jocks. When the rail is out at Caulfield jocks look for the lead and the fence, but when it is true the bias vanishes.
The thing is to realize that ALL tracks have built in bias and some more than others [the myth of the true track is still a myth] and it pays to find out as much as possible about the track you are betting on as there are no golden rules set in concrete that will apply to all tracks.
Part of the fun of racing.
Cheers.
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